Every year, there are complaints that Hollywood, which seems to have eyes only for young male moviegoers, just doesn't offer enough substantive roles for women to make the Best Actress Oscar competition into a real race. This year, however, there are nearly two dozen actresses who are solid contenders for year-end consideration. That said, most of those contenders are going to be vying for just two open slots, since two - and probably three - of the Academy's five openings for nominees have been nailed down since July. Some of the remaining actresses will have to settle for Golden Globe nominations, where the separation of dramas from musicals and comedies means there are 10 spots instead of 5.
The Locks: Gabourey Sidibe (pictured, above right) is riding the year's biggest buzz as the star of festival favorite 'Precious.' Critics have praised the bubbly 26-year-old's performance as a downtrodden, abused teen as the acting transformation of the year. Another lock, in another festival-favorite performance as a teenage girl, is Carey Mulligan, who astonishes with her precocity and poise in 'An Education.'
The probable third lock is a record-breaking 16th career nomination for Meryl Streep - but for which role? As good as she's reputed to be in the December romantic comedy 'It's Complicated,' her performance as real-life foodie icon Julia Child in 'Julie & Julia' probably has the edge, as it pulls off the trickier feat of bringing surprising new life to a famous person audiences thought they already knew.
The Hopefuls: In yet another much-buzzed-about teenage girl performance, there's Saoirse Ronan in 'The Lovely Bones,' as the murdered girl watching over her bereaved family. The movie's literary pedigree (from Alice Sebold's best-selling novel), the presence of an A-list director (Peter Jackson), and Ronan's own Oscar history (she was nominated in a supporting role for 'Atonement') are all advantages. (Disadvantage: She's the only teen played by an actual teen, and the Academy has never given this prize to a kid.)
Other Oscar royalty with strong chances this year include Penélope Cruz (pictured, left), though she just won a trophy for last year's 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona.' She's back with Oscar-fave director Pedro Almodóvar in 'Broken Embraces,' though it's a less showy part than the one Almodóvar wrote for her in 'Volver.' She may also siphon votes away from herself with her performance in the musical 'Nine.' Of course, 'Nine' is full of beautiful, international, Oscar-winning actresses (including Nicole Kidman and Sophia Loren), but the one who has the best shot at a Best Actress prize is Marion Cotillard, who plays the protagonist's long-suffering wife. Another recent winner, Helen Mirren, could return to the podium for playing Leo Tolstoy's wife in 'The Last Station,' in which her character passionately defends the Russian novelist's legacy. Hilary Swank also has a shot for the biopic 'Amelia.' The part was certainly tailor-made for her, though the film didn't do so well with critics or audiences; besides, she's won twice in the last decade, so maybe Oscar will want to spread the wealth.
The Long Shots: Sandra Bullock's feisty, twangy, do-gooder role in 'The Blind Side' (pictured, right) has some critics comparing her performance to Julia Roberts' Oscar-winning turn in 'Erin Brockovich,' but the movie's treacly piety and lack of dramatic conflict mean Bullock has a better shot in the Globes race. Aussie siren Abbie Cornish earned praise as Fanny Brawne, the object of poet John Keats' affection in Jane Campion's biopic 'Bright Star,' but that film's momentum seems to have stalled.
Too Soon to Tell: One should never count out Natalie Portman, but there's not much buzz yet for her performance as an apparent war widow in 'Brothers' (pictured, left). Brenda Blethyn has been getting raves as a mother searching for her missing daughter in the wake of the London subway bombings in 'London River,' but not enough people stateside have seen the movie yet for it to generate any buzz. Same with Bryce Dallas Howard's turn as an heiress in 1950s Memphis in late-breaking Oscar hopeful 'The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond,' based on an unproduced Tennessee Williams screenplay.Other actresses who may have a shot if buzz develops for their movies once they open: Robin Wright Penn, as a troubled trophy wife in 'The Private Lives of Pippa Lee,' and Emily Blunt, as the passionate, not yet prim and starchy queen in the biopic 'The Young Victoria.'
Globe hopefuls: The extra five slots for music and comedy performances at the Golden Globes mean that there's hope for Globe nods for Amy Adams in 'Julie & Julia' (otherwise, she'd be shut out in favor of Streep's performance in the film), Zooey Deschanel in hip romantic comedy '(500) Days of Summer,' Katherine Heigl in unhip romantic comedy 'The Ugly Truth,' and Ellen Page as a beauty-pageant-contestant-turned-roller-derby-queen in 'Whip It.' Bullock also has a shot here for her brazen comic turn in 'The Proposal.'
Don't Forget: These dark horse performances may be too obscure for the Academy, so let's remind them about Audrey Tautou in 'Coco Before Chanel' (as the budding young fashion icon), Catalina Saavedra in 'The Maid' (as a Chilean housekeeper who's a world-class passive-aggressive), and Michelle Monaghan, stretching from her usual arm-candy roles to play a tough semi driver in 'Trucker.'
Reader Comments (13)
NikonF2-AS at 4:17PM on Nov 30th 2009
PRECIOUS: If Gabourey Sidibe picks up an Oscar for 'Best Actress', it will be 100%, because she is black. Gabourey getting the Oscar is the same as Obama getting the "Nobel Peace Prize". Everyone will be asking, WHY? This story is no different than thousands of young women across the US, of all colors. It's in her DNA to act pitiful, feel sorry for me, you don't know what I've been through, you don't know the challenges I've had to face, you don't know where I come from, etc. That same script is passed from generation to generation.
JR at 2:23AM on Dec 1st 2009
wow, it seems to me that you are deeply troubled. this is about acting and nothing else. but, you somehow turned it into a global pablum against blacks, women, and rape victims. you obviously need to find jesus and some truth. or i might confuse you with hitler. i'm just saying!!! your pathologies are similar
NikonF2-AS at 4:34PM on Nov 30th 2009
JULIE&JULIA: This should be a shoe in for Meryl Streep. She has more than paid her dues. I mean, 16 career nominations is quite a feat. A truely seasoned actress. This is her time!
lovelyladyy at 8:26PM on Nov 30th 2009
It was white european that gave him the prize he never asked for it, so white guilt!! Well, thats your opinion. Because she is black she gets the oscar, the job, the education, she did not work for it. oh! yes she did, on the plantation.
Maureen Hannley at 4:08PM on Dec 5th 2009
She did NOT work on the plantation! It would even be hard to prove that any ancestors of hers were to work on the plantation. Get a life - and some realistic perspective on how long the slavery issue is going to dominate thinking. It's always used as the final tool to bring out guilt. History will show that slavery existed in other lands and other times, but they've moved on. However, I agree with the comment of strong black bias in giving awards (and everything else).
MaggieMae at 5:13PM on Nov 30th 2009
Nikon you either haven't seen Precious or have a heart of stone, not to mention being prejudiced with your comments about it being in her DNA to act pitiful. What does Obama have to do with the Oscars anyway besides you wanting to drag politics into something that it has no place in. Gabourey Sidibe deserves every accolade she gets for that role. When I saw Precious, a theatre full of people was shocked to silence by the rawness of the story. Nobody spoke as they left after the credits. It was that emotional of a performance both from her and Monique as her mother. Incredibly well done. I did love Streep as Julia and hope she gets a nod as well incidently.
Curtis at 7:06PM on Nov 30th 2009
you are forgetting one thing... TILDA SWINTON. her absolute perfect role in JULIA (a French film which seemingly failed in the states) is one of the finest and is a shoe-in.
I also believe MERYL STREEP will get a nom for best supporting actress, for that's what she is in the movie I watched.
JR at 2:31AM on Dec 1st 2009
i see that julia's on dvd now. i will try to see it. thanks for the suggestion...
Bob M at 5:56PM on Dec 1st 2009
Whew ... did you forget to mention the GREAT performance by the mother of Precious? Don't know her name, but she 'stole the show'.
LH ROSS at 2:53AM on Dec 4th 2009
How wonderful, two days ago Maria Bello get a nod for best actress for the Spirit Awards and clearly Gary here never caught her harrowing brave turn in that dark unflinching Sundance buzz maker... your list is missing someone;(
Jennifer at 10:16AM on Dec 8th 2009
HELLO!!!!
If anyone from the movie Precious should get an Oscar it is Mo'nique! She completely set aside her typical sexual bawdry to pull off a convincingly poignant performance. I will be shocked and perplexed if they fail to at least give her a nomination.
Clay at 8:25AM on Dec 11th 2009
It's shoo-in people, not shoe in. I swear spelling and grammar of most people commenting on these things is ridiculous!
myopinionis.... at 10:04PM on Jan 17th 2010
I agree with the ideas up there, but I feel like everybody is fogetting about Sigourney Weaver. Avatar may have been more effects than storyline (although I loved that movie a lot, and the storyline was actually pretty good), but Sigourney Weaver played her part beautifully. I'm just putting that out there.....