Box Office Forecast: 'Old Dogs' and 'Ninja Assassin' No Threat to 'New Moon'

Male moviegoers who left heel marks in movie lobbies while being dragged into screenings of the chick-flick juggernaut 'The Twilight Saga: New Moon' last weekend will get some relief over the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend with the arrivals of 'Old Dogs' and 'Ninja Assassin.' But be warned: forcing a girlfriend or spouse to see 'Ninja Assassin' would be way more than getting even.

'Old Dogs' is actually an old-fashioned family movie starring John Travolta and Robin Williams as aging bachelors who, on the eve of a life-changing business deal, are placed in charge of a pair of rascally twins -- with predictably cute complications to follow. Critics hate it -- it got a 22 out of 100 on Metacritic -- but the last comedy Travolta did with director Walt Becker was 2007's 'Wild Hogs,' which laughed at critics all the way to the bank. It grossed $168 million.

Don't expect 'Old Dogs' to do quite as well. The idea of watching Travolta play a surrogate father in a comedy so soon after the tragedy of his own son's death will keep some people away. In nearly 3,500 theaters, look for the film to do about $25 million to $30 million over the long weekend.

'Ninja Assassin,' an international chop-socky thriller directed by Aussie James McTiegue ('V for Vendetta'), is a boys' movie, to be sure, but it's R-rated and has no major stars. You'd have to love the sight of blood more than a thirsty vampire to enjoy this fare. Opening in about 2,500 theaters, it will do well to gross more than $15 million over the holiday.

For sure, neither 'Old Dogs' nor 'Ninja' are going to knock 'New Moon' off the top of the box office chart where it has been perched like the Christ the Redeemer over Rio de Janeiro since last Friday. The second film in the 'Twilight' series astounded even its lottery-winning distributor Summit Entertainment, taking in a domestic total of more than $160 million during its first five days in release, and another $140 million-plus from overseas markets.

The question now, as it enters the long second weekend, is whether most people who wanted to see it have seen it, and how many of those want to see it again. A year ago, 'Twilight's' five-day T-giving business was a whopping 62 percent less than it earned during its three-day opening the week before. If that ratio were to be matched, 'New Moon's' holiday take would be about $55 million.

My guess is that 'New Moon' won't drop as much as 'Twilight.' Exit polls show that its audience has dramatically expanded from teenage girls to women of all ages. (Who knew that waiting until marriage before plunging one's fangs into the neck of another was such a pleasing fantasy?) Look for 'New Moon' to score another $60 million to $70 million by Sunday night.

Almost lost in the gasps over 'New Moon's' opening business was the huge -- in mortal terms -- opening of 'The Blind Side,' an inspirational sports movie based on the life of a current NFL lineman and starring Sandra Bullock as a woman who helped build up his character and self-confidence during his college years. Critics generally denounced it -- it scored just 52 on a scale of 100 on Metacritic -- but in exit polls (and in emails to Moviefone), moviegoers begged to differ.

With good word of mouth, 'The Blind Side' will continue its winning way and gross somewhere north of $25 million this weekend.

Besides 'Old Dogs,' there are three animated films out there: 'Disney's A Christmas Carol,' ''Planet 51' and Wes Anderson's 'Fantastic Mr,. Fox,' which is broadening out from its limited opening last week. 'Christmas Carol' should begin to build as Black Friday announces the urgency of the season, and I expect it to do more than $15 million. Less than wondrous word of mouth for 'Planet 51' may hold its sales down closer to $10 million.

If you live in Los Angeles or New York, you can join the first lines for Disney's 'The Princess and the Frog,' a hand-drawn fairy tale that resets the classic 'The Frog Prince' in New Orleans with mostly black characters. But these exclusive showings are expensive, as much as $50 a ticket. (The film goes wide Dec. 11.)

Finally, the non-holiday movie of the holiday is 'The Road,' a grim drama starring Viggo Mortenson as a father trying to protect his young son in a post-apocalypse America. Good reviews and the gathering winds of Oscar season will give it a fair shot down the road, but a movie about starvation and survival isn't the best programming for people with full post-Thanksgiving bellies.

Opening in 113 theaters, 'The Road' will do well to scrape up more than $2 million.